Meditation for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Interventions incorporating meditation to address stress, anxiety, and depression, and improve self-management, are becoming popular for many health conditions. Stress is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and clusters with other modifiable behavioural risk factors, such as smoking. Meditation may therefore be a useful CVD prevention strategy. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of meditation, primarily mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) and transcendental meditation (TM), for the primary and secondary prevention of CVD. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases, and two trials registers on 14 November 2021, together with reference checking, citation searching, and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of 12 weeks or more in adults at high risk of CVD and those with established CVD. We explored four comparisons: MBIs versus active comparators (alternative interventions); MBIs versus non-active comparators (no intervention, wait list, usual care); TM versus active comparators; TM versus non-active comparators. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were CVD clinical events (e.g. cardiovascular mortality), blood pressure, measures of psychological distress and well-being, and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included other CVD risk factors (e.g. blood lipid levels), quality of life, and coping abilities. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 81 RCTs (6971 participants), with most studies at unclear risk of bias. MBIs versus active comparators (29 RCTs, 2883 participants) Systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were reported in six trials (388 participants) where heterogeneity was considerable (SBP: MD -6.08 mmHg, 95% CI -12.79 to 0.63, I2 = 88%; DBP: MD -5.18 mmHg, 95% CI -10.65 to 0.29, I2 = 91%; both outcomes based on low-certainty evidence). There was little or no effect of MBIs on anxiety (SMD -0.06 units, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.13; I2 = 0%; 9 trials, 438 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), or depression (SMD 0.08 units, 95% CI -0.08 to 0.24; I2 = 0%; 11 trials, 595 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Perceived stress was reduced with MBIs (SMD -0.24 units, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.03; I2 = 0%; P = 0.03; 6 trials, 357 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on well-being (SMD -0.18 units, 95% CI -0.67 to 0.32; 1 trial, 63 participants; low-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on smoking cessation (RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.68; I2 = 79%; 6 trials, 1087 participants; low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported CVD clinical events or adverse events. MBIs versus non-active comparators (38 RCTs, 2905 participants) Clinical events were reported in one trial (110 participants), providing very low-certainty evidence (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.37 to 2.42). SBP and DBP were reduced in nine trials (379 participants) but heterogeneity was substantial (SBP: MD -6.62 mmHg, 95% CI -13.15 to -0.1, I2 = 87%; DBP: MD -3.35 mmHg, 95% CI -5.86 to -0.85, I2 = 61%; both outcomes based on low-certainty evidence). There was low-certainty evidence of reductions in anxiety (SMD -0.78 units, 95% CI -1.09 to -0.41; I2 = 61%; 9 trials, 533 participants; low-certainty evidence), depression (SMD -0.66 units, 95% CI -0.91 to -0.41; I2 = 67%; 15 trials, 912 participants; low-certainty evidence) and perceived stress (SMD -0.59 units, 95% CI -0.89 to -0.29; I2 = 70%; 11 trials, 708 participants; low-certainty evidence) but heterogeneity was substantial. Well-being increased (SMD 0.5 units, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.91; I2 = 47%; 2 trials, 198 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on smoking cessation (RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.86 to 2.13; I2 = 0%; 2 trials, 453 participants; low-certainty evidence). One small study (18 participants) reported two adverse events in the MBI group, which were not regarded as serious by the study investigators (RR 5.0, 95% CI 0.27 to 91.52; low-certainty evidence). No subgroup effects were seen for SBP, DBP, anxiety, depression, or perceived stress by primary and secondary prevention. TM versus active comparators (8 RCTs, 830 participants) Clinical events were reported in one trial (201 participants) based on low-certainty evidence (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.49). SBP was reduced (MD -2.33 mmHg, 95% CI -3.99 to -0.68; I2 = 2%; 8 trials, 774 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), with an uncertain effect on DBP (MD -1.15 mmHg, 95% CI -2.85 to 0.55; I2 = 53%; low-certainty evidence). There was little or no effect on anxiety (SMD 0.06 units, 95% CI -0.22 to 0.33; I2 = 0%; 3 trials, 200 participants; low-certainty evidence), depression (SMD -0.12 units, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.07; I2 = 0%; 5 trials, 421 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), or perceived stress (SMD 0.04 units, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.57; I2 = 70%; 3 trials, 194 participants; very low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported adverse events or smoking rates. No subgroup effects were seen for SBP or DBP by primary and secondary prevention. TM versus non-active comparators (2 RCTs, 186 participants) Two trials (139 participants) reported blood pressure, where reductions were seen in SBP (MD -6.34 mmHg, 95% CI -9.86 to -2.81; I2 = 0%; low-certainty evidence) and DBP (MD -5.13 mmHg, 95% CI -9.07 to -1.19; I2 = 18%; very low-certainty evidence). One trial (112 participants) reported anxiety and depression and found reductions in both (anxiety SMD -0.71 units, 95% CI -1.09 to -0.32; depression SMD -0.48 units, 95% CI -0.86 to -0.11; low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported CVD clinical events, adverse events, or smoking rates. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Despite the large number of studies included in the review, heterogeneity was substantial for many of the outcomes, which reduced the certainty of our findings. We attempted to address this by presenting four main comparisons of MBIs or TM versus active or inactive comparators, and by subgroup analyses according to primary or secondary prevention, where there were sufficient studies. The majority of studies were small and there was unclear risk of bias for most domains. Overall, we found very little information on the effects of meditation on CVD clinical endpoints, and limited information on blood pressure and psychological outcomes, for people at risk of or with established CVD. This is a very active area of research as shown by the large number of ongoing studies, with some having been completed at the time of writing this review. The status of all ongoing studies will be formally assessed and incorporated in further updates.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies.

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease. Methods: Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis. Results: A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy. Future work and limitations: There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions. Conclusions: The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future. Study registration: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836. Funding: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

This study aimed to explore the potential effects of various policy changes on the prevention of heart disease. By searching two large medical databases, we identified studies that employed computer models to estimate the impact of these policies on heart disease rates. In total, 54 studies matched our criteria. These studies considered a diverse range of policy interventions. Some delved into food and nutrition, investigating aspects like unhealthy food taxes, healthy food subsidies, stricter food regulations, and nutritional assistance programs. Others examined the impact of policies targeting tobacco and alcohol, encompassing smoking bans, nationwide tobacco control measures, and alcohol taxation. Further policies assessed included routine health checkups, global health goals, and measures to enhance air quality. One significant challenge lies in the varied approaches and models each study employed, making direct comparisons difficult. Furthermore, there's a gap in understanding how these policies might influence one another, as the studies did not consider potential interactions between them. While these policies show promise in the computer models, more comprehensive research is needed to fully appreciate their combined and long-term effects on heart health in real-world scenarios. As of now, we recognize the potential of these interventions, but further studies will determine their true impact on reducing heart disease rates.

In which context and for whom can interventions improve leadership of surgical trainees, surgeons and surgical teams and why: a realist review protocol.

Background: Improving effective leadership of individuals, groups, and healthcare organisations is essential for improving surgical performance and indirectly improving health outcomes for patients. Numerous systematic reviews have been conducted which seek to determine the effectiveness of specific leadership interventions across a range of disciplines and healthcare outcomes. The purpose of this realist review is to systematically synthesise the literature which examines in which context and for whom leadership interventions improve leadership of surgeons, surgical teams, and trainees. Methods: Several approaches will be used to iteratively search the scientific and grey literature to identify relevant evidence. Selected articles will inform the development of a programme theory that seeks to explain in which context and for whom interventions can improve leadership of surgical trainees, surgeons, and surgical teams. Next, empirical studies will be searched systematically in order to test and, where necessary, refine the theory. Once theoretical saturation has been achieved, recommendations for advancing leadership in surgery will be developed. Stakeholder and patient and public consultations will contribute to the development of the programme theory. The review will be written up according to the Realist And Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards publication standards. No ethical review will be required for the conduct of this realist review. Discussion: The knowledge gained from this review will provide evidence-based guidance for those planning or designing leadership interventions in surgery. The recommendations will help policymakers, educationalists, healthcare providers, and those delivering or planning leadership development programmes across the surgical disciplines to design interventions that are acceptable to the surgical community and successful in improving surgical leadership.PROSPERO registration: CRD42021230709.

How do leadership development activities need to be designed in order to improve the leadership of surgeons, surgical teams and surgical trainees? Leadership is seen to be an important skill for those working in healthcare. Healthcare systems therefore, invest a lot of money into the development of the leadership of surgeons, surgical teams, and surgical trainees. Leadership development activities include leadership courses and programmes, mentoring and coaching, feedback activities, and simulation training. To date there is no agreement on what makes leadership development activities effective or not. We also do not know whether they work for certain people or professionals more than others. It is important to find out what interventions are best, in order to spend money on leadership development effectively. This protocol describes our plan to develop a theory explaining in which context and for whom leadership development activities work and why. We will develop the theory based on the existing literature and through discussions with experts in the field. To make the results more reliable, we will search databases systematically and the different stages of the review will be checked by two people. Results will feed into further research where we collect 'real world' data on leadership development activities that take place in the National Health Service (NHS) and whether they work and why. Our study will also provide guidance for those who are planning or designing leadership development activities for surgeons, surgical teams and surgical trainees.

Advancing leadership in surgery: a realist review of interventions and strategies to promote evidence-based leadership in healthcare.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare systems invest in leadership development of surgeons, surgical trainees, and teams. However, there is no agreement on how interventions should be designed, or what components they must contain to be successful. The objective of this realist review was to generate a programme theory explaining in which context and for whom surgical leadership interventions work and why. METHODS: Five databases were systematically searched, and articles screened against inclusion considering their relevance. Context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs) and fragments of CMOCs were identified. Gaps in the CMOCs were filled through deliberation with the research team and stakeholder feedback. We identified patterns between CMOCs and causal relationships to create a programme theory. RESULTS: Thirty-three studies were included and 19 CMOCs were developed. Findings suggests that interventions for surgeons and surgical teams improve leadership if timely feedback is delivered on multiple occasions and by trusted and respected people. Negative feedback is best provided privately. Feedback from senior-to-junior or peer-to-peer should be delivered directly, whereas feedback from junior-to-senior is preferred when delivered anonymously. Leadership interventions were shown to be most effective for those with awareness of the importance of leadership, those with confidence in their technical surgical skills, and those with identified leadership deficits. For interventions to improve leadership in surgery, they need to be delivered in an intimate learning environment, consider implementing a speak-up culture, provide a variety of interactive learning activities, show a genuine investment in the intervention, and be customised to the needs of surgeons. Leadership of surgical teams can be best developed by enabling surgical teams to train together. CONCLUSIONS: The programme theory provides evidence-based guidance for those who are designing, developing and implementing leadership interventions in surgery. Adopting the recommendations will help to ensure interventions are acceptable to the surgical community and successful in improving surgical leadership. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021230709).

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of the study was to guide researchers and commissioners of cardiovascular disease preventative services towards possible cost-effective interventions by reviewing published economic analyses of interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, conducted for or within the UK NHS. METHODS: In January 2021, electronic searches of MEDLINE and Embase were carried out to find economic evaluations of cardiovascular disease preventative services. We included fully published economic evaluations (including economic models) conducted alongside randomised controlled trials of any form of intervention that was aimed at the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, including, but not limited to, drugs, diet, physical activity and public health. Full systematic review methods were used with predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria, data extraction and formal quality appraisal [using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist and the framework for the quality assessment of decision analytic modelling by Philips et al. (Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, Claxton K, Golder S, Riemsma R, et al. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Health Technol Assess 2004;8(36)]. RESULTS: Of 4351 non-duplicate citations, eight articles met the review's inclusion criteria. The eight articles focused on health promotion (n = 3), lipid-lowering medicine (n = 4) and blood pressure-lowering medication (n = 1). The majority of the populations in each study had at least one risk factor for cardiovascular disease or were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. For the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, all strategies were cost-effective at a threshold of £25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, except increasing motivational interviewing in addition to other behaviour change strategies. Where the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained was reported, interventions varied from dominant (i.e. less expensive and more effective than the comparator intervention) to £55,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS: We found few health economic analyses of interventions for primary cardiovascular disease prevention conducted within the last decade. Future economic assessments should be undertaken and presented in accordance with best practices so that future reviews may make clear recommendations to improve health policy. CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult to establish direct comparisons or draw firm conclusions because of the uncertainty and heterogeneity among studies. However, interventions conducted for or within the UK NHS were likely to be cost-effective in people at increased risk of cardiovascular disease when compared with usual care or no intervention. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Increasing comprehensiveness and reducing workload in a systematic review of complex interventions using automated machine learning.

BACKGROUND: As part of our ongoing systematic review of complex interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, we have developed and evaluated automated machine-learning classifiers for title and abstract screening. The aim was to develop a high-performing algorithm comparable to human screening. METHODS: We followed a three-phase process to develop and test an automated machine learning-based classifier for screening potential studies on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We labelled a total of 16,611 articles during the first phase of the project. In the second phase, we used the labelled articles to develop a machine learning-based classifier. After that, we examined the performance of the classifiers in correctly labelling the papers. We evaluated the performance of the five deep-learning models [i.e. parallel convolutional neural network ( CNN ), stacked CNN , parallel-stacked CNN , recurrent neural network ( RNN ) and CNN-RNN]. The models were evaluated using recall, precision and work saved over sampling at no less than 95% recall. RESULTS: We labelled a total of 16,611 articles, of which 676 (4.0%) were tagged as 'relevant' and 15,935 (96%) were tagged as 'irrelevant'. The recall ranged from 51.9% to 96.6%. The precision ranged from 64.6% to 99.1%. The work saved over sampling ranged from 8.9% to as high as 92.1%. The best-performing model was parallel CNN , yielding a 96.4% recall, as well as 99.1% precision, and a potential workload reduction of 89.9%. FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS: We used words from the title and the abstract only. More work needs to be done to look into possible changes in performance, such as adding features such as full document text. The approach might also not be able to be used for other complex systematic reviews on different topics. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that machine learning has the potential to significantly aid the labour-intensive screening of abstracts in systematic reviews of complex interventions. Future research should concentrate on enhancing the classifier system and determining how it can be integrated into the systematic review workflow. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Perioperative oxygen therapy: a protocol for an overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen is routinely given to patients during and after surgery. Perioperative oxygen administration has been proposed as a potential strategy to prevent and treat hypoxaemia and reduce complications, such as surgical site infections, pulmonary complications and mortality. However, uncertainty exists as to which strategies in terms of amount, delivery devices and timing are clinically effective. The aim of this overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses is to answer the research question, 'For which types of surgery, at which stages of care, in which sub-groups of patients and delivered under what conditions are different types of perioperative oxygen therapy clinically effective?'. METHODS: We will search key electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CENTRAL, Epistemonikos, PROSPERO, the INAHTA International HTA Database and DARE archives) for systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials comparing perioperative oxygen strategies. Each review will be mapped according to type of surgery, surgical pathway timepoints and clinical comparison. The highest quality reviews with the most comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of relevant literature will be chosen as anchoring reviews. Standardised data will be extracted from each chosen review, including definition of oxygen therapy, summaries of interventions and comparators, patient population, surgical characteristics and assessment of overall certainty of evidence. For clinical outcomes and adverse events, the overall pooled findings and results of subgroup and sensitivity analyses (where available) will be extracted. Trial-level data will be extracted for surgical site infections, mortality, and potential trial-level effect modifiers such as risk of bias, outcome definition and type of surgery to facilitate quantitative data analysis. This analysis will adopt a multiple indication review approach with panoramic meta-analysis using review-level data and meta-regression using trial-level data. An evidence map will be produced to summarise our findings and highlight any research gaps. DISCUSSION: There is a need to provide a panoramic overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses describing peri-operative oxygen practice to both inform clinical practice and identify areas of ongoing uncertainty, where further research may be required. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021272361.

A Technical Review of the ISPOR Presentations Database Identified Issues in the Search Interface and Areas for Future Development.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a technical review of the search interface of the ISPOR Presentations Database. By technical review, we mean an evaluation of the technical aspects of the search interface and functionality, which a user must navigate to complete a search. METHODS: A validated checklist (Bethel and Rogers, 2014, Health Info Libr J, 31, 43-53) was used to identify where the interface performed well, where the interface was adequate, where the interface performed poorly, where functionality available in core biomedical bibliographic databases does not exist in the ISPOR database, and to establish a list of any issues arising during the review. Two researchers independently undertook the technical review in October 2021. RESULTS: The ISPOR database scored 35 of a possible 165 (27/111 essential criteria and 8/54 desirable criteria). Two issues arising were identified, both of which will cause searchers to miss potentially eligible abstracts: (i) that search terms, which include * or ? as truncation or wildcard symbols should not be capitalized (e.g., cost* not Cost*; organi?ation not Organi?ation) and (ii) that quotation marks should be straight sided in phrase searching (e.g., "cost analyses" not "cost analyses"). CONCLUSIONS: The ISPOR database is a promising and free database to identify abstracts/posters presented at ISPOR. We summarize two key issues arising, and we set out proposed changes to the search interface, including: adding the ability to export abstracts to a bibliographic tool, exporting search strategies, adding a researcher account, and updating the help guide. All suggestions will further improve this helpful database.

Testing strategies for Lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended that people with colorectal cancer are tested for Lynch syndrome. Routine testing for Lynch syndrome among people with endometrial cancer is not currently conducted. OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the evidence on the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry- and microsatellite instability-based strategies to detect Lynch syndrome among people who have endometrial cancer, and the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of testing for Lynch syndrome among people who have been diagnosed with endometrial cancer. DATA SOURCES: Searches were conducted in the following databases, from inception to August 2019 - MEDLINE ALL, EMBASE (both via Ovid), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (both via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment Database (both via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (both via Web of Science), PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, EconPapers (Research Papers in Economics) and School of Health and Related Research Health Utilities Database. The references of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were also checked and experts on the team were consulted. REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies included people with endometrial cancer who were tested for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry- and/or microsatellite instability-based testing [with or without mutL homologue 1 (MLH1) promoter hypermethylation testing], with Lynch syndrome diagnosis being established though germline testing of normal (non-tumour) tissue for constitutional mutations in mismatch repair. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool, the Consolidated Health Economic Reporting Standards and the Philips' checklist. Two reviewers independently conducted each stage of the review. A meta-analysis of test accuracy was not possible because of the number and heterogeneity of studies. A narrative summary of test accuracy results was provided, reporting test accuracy estimates and presenting forest plots. The economic model constituted a decision tree followed by Markov models for the impact of colorectal and endometrial surveillance, and aspirin prophylaxis with a lifetime time horizon. RESULTS: The clinical effectiveness search identified 3308 studies; 38 studies of test accuracy were included. (No studies of clinical effectiveness of endometrial cancer surveillance met the inclusion criteria.) Four test accuracy studies compared microsatellite instability with immunohistochemistry. No clear difference in accuracy between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability was observed. There was some evidence that specificity of immunohistochemistry could be improved with the addition of methylation testing. There was high concordance between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. The economic model indicated that all testing strategies, compared with no testing, were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9420 per quality-adjusted life-year. The second most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry testing alone, but incremental analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding £130,000. Results were robust across all scenario analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £5690 to £20,740; only removing the benefits of colorectal cancer surveillance produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in excess of the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. A sensitivity analysis identified the main cost drivers of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as percentage of relatives accepting counselling and prevalence of Lynch syndrome in the population. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, a 0.93 probability that immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing is cost-effective, compared with no testing. LIMITATIONS: The systematic review excluded grey literature, studies written in non-English languages and studies for which the reference standard could not be established. Studies were included when Lynch syndrome was diagnosed by genetic confirmation of constitutional variants in the four mismatch repair genes (i.e. MLH1, mutS homologue 2, mutS homologue 6 and postmeiotic segregation increased 2). Variants of uncertain significance were reported as per the studies. There were limitations in the economic model around uncertainty in the model parameters and a lack of modelling of the potential harms of gynaecological surveillance and specific pathway modelling of genetic testing for somatic mismatch repair mutations. CONCLUSION: The economic model suggests that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective, but that results should be treated with caution because of uncertain model inputs. FUTURE WORK: Randomised controlled trials could provide evidence on the effect of earlier intervention on outcomes and the balance of benefits and harms of gynaecological cancer surveillance. Follow-up of negative cases through disease registers could be used to determine false negative cases. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147185. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Lynch syndrome is an inherited condition that is caused by a problem in the genes. People who have Lynch syndrome have a higher risk of some types of cancer (such as bowel and womb cancers) than people who do not have it. Identifying Lynch syndrome could stop cancers developing, lead to earlier treatment for cancers and help to find other family members who might have it. Currently, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends testing for Lynch syndrome in people who have bowel cancer. Our aim was to investigate whether or not we should test for Lynch syndrome in women with womb cancer, and their relatives. We investigated two main tests: immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. There was no clear evidence that one of these tests is better than the other. There is some evidence that both tests are reasonably accurate. There was no good-quality evidence about whether or not treating women with Lynch syndrome with extra cancer screening and aspirin improves their outcomes. We used the best evidence available in our economic model, but it was at high risk of bias. The economic model suggested that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective. The best test in the model was immunohistochemistry followed by methylation testing. We are unsure of these results because of the low quality of evidence available.

Association between vitamin D supplementation or serum vitamin D level and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 including clinical course, morbidity and mortality outcomes? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systemically review and critically appraise published studies of the association between vitamin D supplementation or serum vitamin D level and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19, including clinical course, morbidity and mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (OVID), Embase (OVID), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MedRxiv and BioRxiv preprint databases. COVID-19 databases of the WHO, Cochrane, CEBM Oxford and Bern University up to 10 June 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that assessed vitamin D supplementation and/or low serum vitamin D in patients acutely ill with, or at risk of, severe betacoronavirus infection (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2). DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently extracted data using a predefined data extraction form and assessed risk of bias using the Downs and Black Quality Assessment Checklist. RESULTS: Searches elicited 449 papers, 59 studies were eligible full-text assessment and 4 met the eligibility criteria of this review. The four studies were narratively synthesised and included (1) a cross-sectional study (n=107) suggesting an inverse association between serum vitamin D and SARS-CoV-2; (2) a retrospective cohort study (348 598 participants, 449 cases) in which univariable analysis showed that vitamin D protects against COVID-19; (3) an ecological country level study demonstrating a negative correlation between vitamin D and COVID-19 case numbers and mortality; and (4) a case-control survey (n=1486) showing cases with confirmed/probable COVID-19 reported lower vitamin D supplementation. All studies were at high/unclear risk of bias. CONCLUSION: There is no robust evidence of a negative association between vitamin D and COVID-19. No relevant randomised controlled trials were identified and there is no robust peer-reviewed published evidence of association between vitamin D levels and severity of symptoms or mortality due to COVID-19. Guideline producers should acknowledge that benefits of vitamin D supplementation in COVID-19 are as yet unproven despite increasing interest.

A technical review of three clinical trials register resources indicates where improvements to the search interfaces are needed.

Clinical trials registers form an important part of the search for studies in systematic reviews of intervention effectiveness but the search interfaces and functionality of registers can be challenging to search systematically and resource intensive to search well. We report a technical review of the search interfaces of three leading trials register resources: ClinicalTrials.gov, the EU Clinical Trials Register and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registers Platform. The technical review used a validated checklist to identify areas where the search interfaces of these trials register resources performed well, where performance was adequate, where performance was poor, and to identify differences between search interfaces. The review found low overall scores for each of the interfaces (ClinicalTrials.gov 55/165, the EU Clinical Trials Register 25/165, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registers Platform 32/165). This finding suggests a need for joined-up dialogue between the producers of the registers and researchers who search them via these interfaces. We also set out a series of four proposed changes which might improve the search interfaces. Trials registers are an invaluable resource in systematic reviews of intervention effectiveness. With the continued growth in systematic reviews, and initiatives such as 'AllTrials', there is an anticipated need for these resources. We conclude that small changes to the search interfaces, and improved dialogue with providers, might improve the future search functionality of these valuable resources.

Testing for lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer using immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability-based testing strategies - A systematic review of test accuracy.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of cancer, including endometrial and colorectal cancer. We assessed the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability-based testing (with or without MLH1 promoter methylation testing) for Lynch syndrome in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of literature published up to August 2019. We searched bibliographic databases, contacted experts and checked reference lists of relevant studies. Two reviewers conducted each stage of the review. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were identified that included approximately 3500 participants. None of the studies was at low risk of bias in all domains. Data could not be pooled due to the small number of heterogeneous studies. Sensitivity ranged from 60.7-100% for immunohistochemistry, 41.7-100% for microsatellite instability-based testing, and 90.5-100% for studies combining immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability-based testing, and MLH1 promoter methylation testing. Specificity ranged from 60.9-83.3% (excluding 1 study with highly selective inclusion criteria) for immunohistochemistry, 69.2-89.9% for microsatellite instability-based testing, and 72.4-92.3% (excluding 1 study with highly selective inclusion criteria) for testing strategies that included immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability-based testing, and MLH1 promoter methylation. We found no statistically significant differences in test accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity) in head-to-head studies of immunohistochemistry versus microsatellite instability-based testing. Reported test failures were rare. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity of the index tests were generally high, though most studies had much lower specificity. We found no evidence that test accuracy differed between IHC and MSI based strategies. The evidence base is currently small and at high risk of bias.

Rapid antigen detection and molecular tests for group A streptococcal infections for acute sore throat: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve. OBJECTIVE: Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings. DATA SOURCES: Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. RESULTS: The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test's true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions. LIMITATIONS: No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups. STUDY REGISTRATION: The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are viral; however, a small number may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks; however, some may be more serious and require antibiotics. Currently, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends the use of clinical scoring tools to identify patients for whom antibiotic treatment is appropriate. Ideally, a throat swab culture should be obtained to identify the organism causing the infection in cases in which diagnosis is uncertain. However, this takes time, causing potential delays in administering the correct treatment. Point-of-care tests can be administered at or near the site of the patient; therefore, they are much faster. Our review considered evidence for the test accuracy and cost-effectiveness of 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria. We built an economic model, predicting costs and benefits for adults and children in a primary care or hospital setting. The findings will support the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to make recommendations about the use of these point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria in the NHS in England and Wales. The clinical effectiveness review found 38 relevant studies; of these, 26 reported on the accuracy of point-of-care tests. These studies found wide variation in the accuracy of the tests. The quality of the evidence was weak and there was little information on some of the 21 tests. As the studies were all so different, it was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate. The economic model found considerable uncertainty about how costs and benefits would change if point-of-care tests were introduced in different care settings. Further research is needed to see whether or not point-of-care testing provides value for money.

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review, cost-effectiveness review and network meta-analysis protocol.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent improvements in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, deaths from CVD are relatively high compared with other high-income countries. An estimated 7 million people in the UK are living with CVD, and the healthcare cost is approximately £11 billion annually. In more than 90% of cases, the risk of a first heart attack is thought to be related to modifiable risk factors including smoking, poor diet, lipidemia, high blood pressure, inactivity, obesity and excess alcohol consumption. The aim of the study is to synthesise evidence for the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different interventions for the primary prevention of CVD. METHODS: We will systematically search databases (for example, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cochrane Library) and the reference lists of previous systematic reviews for randomised controlled trials that assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of any form of intervention aimed at adult populations for the primary prevention of CVD, including but not limited to lipid lowering medications, blood pressure lowering medications, antiplatelet agents, nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, health promotion programmes, physical activity interventions or structural and policy interventions. Interventions may or may not be targeted at high-risk groups. Publications from any year will be considered for inclusion. The primary outcome will be all cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will be cardiovascular diseases related mortality, major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life years gained. If data permits, we will use network meta-analysis to compare and rank effectiveness of different interventions, and test effect modification of intervention effectiveness using subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses. DISCUSSION: The results will be important for policymakers when making decisions between multiple possible alternative strategies to prevent CVD. Compared to results from existing multiple separate pairwise meta-analyses, this overarching synthesis of all relevant work will enhance decision-making. The findings will be crucial to inform evidence-based priorities and guidelines for policies and planning prevention strategies of CVD. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019123940.

COVID-19 in cardiac arrest and infection risk to rescuers: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There may be a risk of COVID-19 transmission to rescuers delivering treatment for cardiac arrest. The aim of this review was to identify the potential risk of transmission associated with key interventions (chest compressions, defibrillation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation) to inform international treatment recommendations. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review comprising three questions: (1) aerosol generation associated with key interventions; (2) risk of airborne infection transmission associated with key interventions; and (3) the effect of different personal protective equipment strategies. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the World Health Organization COVID-19 database on 24th March 2020. Eligibility criteria were developed individually for each question. We assessed risk of bias for individual studies, and used the GRADE process to assess evidence certainty by outcome. RESULTS: We included eleven studies: two cohort studies, one case control study, five case reports, and three manikin randomised controlled trials. We did not find any direct evidence that chest compressions or defibrillation either are or are not associated with aerosol generation or transmission of infection. Data from manikin studies indicates that donning of personal protective equipment delays treatment delivery. Studies provided only indirect evidence, with no study describing patients with COVID-19. Evidence certainty was low or very low for all outcomes. CONCLUSION: It is uncertain whether chest compressions or defibrillation cause aerosol generation or transmission of COVID-19 to rescuers. There is very limited evidence and a rapid need for further studies. Review registration: PROSPERO CRD42020175594.

Ocrelizumab for Treating Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

Ocrelizumab is indicated for relapsing remitting and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (RRMS and PPMS, respectively). In an appraisal undertaken by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the company Roche presented the evidence for ocrelizumab used in patients with PPMS, which came from one single randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing ocrelizumab versus placebo. Based on results from this trial, the licensed indication was restricted to patients with early PPMS in terms of disease duration and level of disability, and with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity. Overall, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) found that the RCT had a low risk of bias. In the post-hoc defined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) active subgroup, matching the label indication, the risk of confirmed disability progression sustained for 12 weeks (CDP-12) was significantly delayed in the ocrelizumab group compared to placebo. However, considering the same risk with progression sustained for 24 weeks (CDP-24), which was deemed the most clinically relevant, the benefit from ocrelizumab did not reach statistical significance. In the same MRI active subgroup, benefits from ocrelizumab on functional outcomes and on health-related quality of life were not clearly demonstrated. A de novo Markov model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care (BSC) for treating patients with PPMS. Health states were defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), ranging from 0 to 9. Disability progression was based on the MSBase natural history cohort that exhibited disease progression in the absence of disease-modifying therapy. Treatment with ocrelizumab delayed disability progression, with evidence of its clinical effectiveness obtained from the RCT. The economic analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, and the outcomes were reported in terms of life years gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), with the overall results reported in terms of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per QALY gained over a 50-year time horizon. Both costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% per annum. The company undertook deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). The ERG raised several concerns, which were discussed at the appraisal committee meetings, resulting in the committee's preferences being applied and a revised economic analysis from the company. Under an approved patient access scheme with appraisal committee preferences applied, analyses yielded an ICER of approximately £78,300 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that the treatment effect on CDP-12 had the greatest impact. Results for the PSA showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained, ocrelizumab versus BSC had a zero probability of being cost-effective. Following new analyses submitted by the company, with a revised confidential patient access scheme, NICE recommended ocrelizumab in the treatment of early PPMS in adults with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity.

Internet videoconferencing for patient-clinician consultations in long-term conditions: A review of reviews and applications in line with guidelines and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: The use of internet videoconferencing in healthcare settings is widespread, reflecting the normalisation of this mode of communication in society and current healthcare policy. As the use of internet videoconferencing is growing, increasing numbers of reviews of literature are published. METHODS: The authors conducted a review of the existing reviews of literature relating to the use of internet videoconferencing for consultations between healthcare professionals and patients with long-term conditions in their own home. The review was followed with an assessment of United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines for patient care in the context of common long-term illnesses to examine where videoconferencing could be implemented in line with these recommendations. RESULTS: The review of reviews found no formal evidence in favour of or against the use of internet videoconferencing. Patients were satisfied with the use of videoconferencing but there was limited evidence that it led to a change in health outcomes. Evidence of healthcare professional satisfaction when using this mode of communication with patients was limited. The review of guidelines suggested a number of opportunities for adoption and expansion of internet videoconferencing. Implementing videoconferencing in line with current evidence for patient care could offer support and provide information on using a communication channel that suits individual patient needs and circumstances. The evidence base for videoconferencing is growing, but there is still a lack of data relating to cost, ethics and safety. CONCLUSIONS: While the current evidence base for internet videoconferencing is equivocal, it is likely to change as more research is undertaken and evidence published. With more videoconferencing services added in more contexts, research needs to explore how internet videoconferencing can be implemented in ways that it is valued by patients and clinicians, and how it can fit within organisational and technical infrastructure of the healthcare services.

Pembrolizumab for Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

Pembrolizumab is an intravenously administered monoclonal antibody licensed for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma after platinum-containing chemotherapy. This summary presents the perspective of Warwick Evidence, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) appointed by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for the single technology appraisal of pembrolizumab for this indication. Pembrolizumab is manufactured by Merck, Sharp and Dohme (MSD). The major source of clinical effectiveness was the KEYNOTE-045 trial, where 542 patients received either pembrolizumab or clinician's choice of docetaxel, paclitaxel or vinflunine as a second-line treatment. No indirect treatment comparison was performed. The clinical effectiveness was assessed using hazard ratios for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of the intention-to-treat (ITT) population, together with the subpopulations positive for programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression (combined positive score [CPS] ≥ 1%) and strongly positive for PD-L1 expression (CPS ≥ 10%). In the ITT population, OS improved with pembrolizumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.91) while PFS outcomes showed no difference (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.81-1.19). Pembrolizumab demonstrated a better safety profile than its combined comparators, with fewer patients experiencing adverse events (60.9 vs 90.2%). Similar results were observed in populations expressing PD-L1. MSD estimated the cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab using a de novo partitioned survival model. The model had three health states: pre-progression, post-progression and death, where OS and PFS estimates excluded patients who received vinflunine. The largest uncertainty was over the selection of the parametric models used to extrapolate OS and PFS and the time point for when to begin their extrapolation. The company preferences for extrapolation were not well supported and the ERG disagreed with their selection for OS. Utility values were also contentious, with the company preferring to use pooled time-to-death-based utilities pooled across treatment arms, whilst the ERG preferred pooled progression-based utilities. The company preferred to use data from patients receiving vinflunine when calculating the utility values, which the ERG disagreed with as this is not recommended treatment within the UK. The company assumed a lifetime treatment effect for their model; however, the lack of evidence made it difficult to confidently provide a realistic estimate of treatment effect duration. Various durations were explored (3, 5 and 10 years). The first appraisal committee meeting concluded that pembrolizumab was not cost effective, largely due to uncertainty in the OS and PFS extrapolations. The company's second submission included an additional 4 months follow-up to survival data. The company in this new submission maintained their original assumptions in their base-case analysis, changing only the choice of parametric curve for PFS. This change resulted in the OS and PFS curves intersecting at 6 years in the pembrolizumab arm, at which point PFS identically followed OS. This resulted in no patients in the post-progression health state beyond this time point, and therefore, the majority of pembrolizumab's benefit came from pre-progression survival. Given the unclear PFS benefit, the ERG found this implausible and maintained their original base-case model assumptions. Considerable uncertainty remained over the specification of the extrapolations and the duration of treatment effect. Based on a new-value proposition submitted by the company, the appraisal committee concluded that pembrolizumab had plausible potential to be cost effective. Pembrolizumab was referred for funding through the Cancer Drugs Fund, so that further data could be collected with the aim of diminishing the outstanding uncertainties pertaining to its clinical effectiveness.

Comparative effectiveness of beta-interferons and glatiramer acetate for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: systematic review and network meta-analysis of trials including recommended dosages.

BACKGROUND: We systematically reviewed the comparative effectiveness of injectable beta-interferons (IFN-ß) and glatiramer acetate (GA) on annualised relapse rate (ARR), progression and discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) in RRMS, using evidence from within the drugs' recommended dosages. METHODS: We updated prior comprehensive reviews, checked references of included studies, contacted experts in the field, and screened websites for relevant publications to locate randomised trials of IFN-ß and GA with recommended dosages in RRMS populations, compared against placebo or other recommended dosages. Abstracts were screened and assessed for inclusion in duplicate and independently. Studies were appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Rate ratios for ARR, hazard ratios for time to progression, and risk ratios for discontinuation due to AEs were synthesised in separate models using random effects network meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 24 studies reported in 42 publications. Most studies were at high risk of bias in at least one domain. All drugs had a beneficial effect on ARR as compared to placebo, but not compared to each other, and findings were robust to sensitivity analysis. We considered time to progression confirmed at 3 months and confirmed at 6 months in separate models; while both models suggested that the included drugs were effective, findings were not consistent between models. Discontinuation due to AEs did not appear to be different between drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analyses confirmed that IFN-ß and GA reduce ARR and generally delay progression as defined in these trials, though there was no clear 'winner' across outcomes. Findings are additionally tempered by the high risk of bias across studies, and the use of an impairment/mobility scale to measure disease progression. Future research should consider more relevant measures of disability and, given that most trials have been short-term, consider a longitudinal approach to comparative effectiveness. REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016043278 .